Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama Prediction & Preview
BrazilA · Jul 29, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
BRAZILA
Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama
Model pick: Vasco da Gama (41%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.03 – 1.28
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Chapecoense | Vasco da Gama |
|---|
| League position | #20 (9 pts) | #17 (20 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.3 / 2.4 | 1.1 / 1.9 |
| Win rate this season* | 10% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.6 | 1.4 / 2.2 |
*Chapecoense shown at home, Vasco da Gama shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Chapecoense — last 5
DWWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 37% of home games go over 2.5.
Vasco da Gama — last 5
WLLLD
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 45% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Chapecoense (home) | Vasco da Gama (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-4-5 in 10 (1.3 / 2.4 goals per game) | 0-4-5 in 9 (1.1 / 1.9 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 45% |
BrazilA — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.38
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 43%
BTTS: 48%
Use these BrazilA averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.03 vs 1.28):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Chapecoense or draw (1X) | 58% |
| Double chance — Vasco da Gama or draw (X2) | 70% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 67% / 33% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| Chapecoense clean sheet | 28% |
| Vasco da Gama clean sheet | 36% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Vasco da Gama is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Despite playing away, Vasco da Gama edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama — FAQ
Who will win Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama?
Our statistical model makes Vasco da Gama the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: Chapecoense 30%, draw 29%, Vasco da Gama 41%.
Will both teams score in Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama?
Expected goals are 1.03 for Chapecoense and 1.28 for Vasco da Gama — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Chapecoense or draw is 58%.