Charleston vs Miami FC Prediction & Preview
USL 1 (USA) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 23:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
USL 1 (USA)
Charleston vs Miami FC
Model pick: Charleston (62%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.19 – 1.16
Total goals: 3.3
Over 2.5: 59%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Charleston | Miami FC |
|---|
| League position | #2 (33 pts) | #9 (22 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 3.0 / 0.8 | 0.7 / 1.4 |
| Win rate this season* | 78% | 10% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 2.0 |
*Charleston shown at home, Miami FC shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Charleston — last 5
DLWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Miami FC — last 5
LDLLL
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 75% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Charleston (home) | Miami FC (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 7-2-0 in 9 (3.0 / 0.8 goals per game) | 1-4-5 in 10 (0.7 / 1.4 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 75% |
USL 1 (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.47
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 42%
BTTS: 47%
Use these USL 1 (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.19 vs 1.16):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Charleston or draw (1X) | 81% |
| Double chance — Miami FC or draw (X2) | 39% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 80% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 85% / 15% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 43% / 57% |
| Charleston clean sheet | 31% |
| Miami FC clean sheet | 11% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Charleston is the model's most likely outcome at
62%. Charleston are backed at home, where they average 2.7 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.3, this shapes as an open game (59% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ Charleston vs Miami FC — FAQ
Who will win Charleston vs Miami FC?
Our statistical model makes Charleston the most likely result at 62%. Full probabilities: Charleston 62%, draw 21%, Miami FC 17%.
Will both teams score in Charleston vs Miami FC?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Charleston vs Miami FC?
Expected goals are 2.19 for Charleston and 1.16 for Miami FC — about 3.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Charleston vs Miami FC?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (10%). Double chance for Charleston or draw is 81%.