Charlotte Independ. vs Portland Hearts of Pine Prediction & Preview
USL League One (USA) · Sep 02, 2026 · kickoff 23:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
USL LEAGUE ONE (USA)
Charlotte Independ. vs Portland Hearts of Pine
Model pick: Charlotte Independ. (55%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
23%
Portland Hearts of Pine
Expected goals: 2.32 – 1.35
Total goals: 3.7
Over 2.5: 63%
Both teams score: 60%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Charlotte Independ. | Portland Hearts of Pine |
|---|
| League position | #2 (43 pts) | #13 (23 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.5 / 1.1 | 1.4 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 91% | 17% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.4 | 1.2 / 1.8 |
*Charlotte Independ. shown at home, Portland Hearts of Pine shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Charlotte Independ. — last 5
WWLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 14% of the time; 86% of home games go over 2.5.
Portland Hearts of Pine — last 5
DLLDD
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Charlotte Independ. (home) | Portland Hearts of Pine (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 10-0-1 in 11 (2.5 / 1.1 goals per game) | 2-5-5 in 12 (1.4 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 14% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 86% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 86% | 67% |
USL League One (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.93
Home wins: 51%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 61%
BTTS: 61%
Use these USL League One (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.32 vs 1.35):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (9%) |
| Double chance — Charlotte Independ. or draw (1X) | 79% |
| Double chance — Portland Hearts of Pine or draw (X2) | 41% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 81% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 88% / 12% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 50% / 50% |
| Charlotte Independ. clean sheet | 26% |
| Portland Hearts of Pine clean sheet | 10% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Charlotte Independ. is the model's most likely outcome at
55%. Charlotte Independ. are backed at home, where they average 2.3 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.7, this shapes as an open game (63% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Charlotte Independ. vs Portland Hearts of Pine — FAQ
Who will win Charlotte Independ. vs Portland Hearts of Pine?
Our statistical model makes Charlotte Independ. the most likely result at 55%. Full probabilities: Charlotte Independ. 55%, draw 22%, Portland Hearts of Pine 23%.
Will both teams score in Charlotte Independ. vs Portland Hearts of Pine?
The model gives a 60% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Charlotte Independ. vs Portland Hearts of Pine?
Expected goals are 2.32 for Charlotte Independ. and 1.35 for Portland Hearts of Pine — about 3.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Charlotte Independ. vs Portland Hearts of Pine?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (9%). Double chance for Charlotte Independ. or draw is 79%.