Charlotte vs D.C. United Prediction & Preview
MLS (USA) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 23:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MLS (USA)
Charlotte vs D.C. United
Model pick: Charlotte (52%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.85 – 1.03
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 57%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Charlotte | D.C. United |
|---|
| League position | #6 (21 pts) | #9 (18 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 1.0 | 1.2 / 1.1 |
| Win rate this season* | 56% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 0.8 | 1.4 / 1.2 |
*Charlotte shown at home, D.C. United shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Charlotte — last 5
LWWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 43% of the time; 49% of home games go over 2.5.
D.C. United — last 5
DDWDD
On the road: clean sheet 16% of the time; 57% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Charlotte (home) | D.C. United (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-2-2 in 9 (2.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 2-4-2 in 8 (1.2 / 1.1 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 43% | 16% |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 57% |
| Top scorer | Pep Biel (8) | Tai Baribo (11) |
MLS (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 59%
Use these MLS (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.85 vs 1.03):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Charlotte or draw (1X) | 79% |
| Double chance — D.C. United or draw (X2) | 43% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 78% / 22% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 33% / 67% |
| Charlotte clean sheet | 36% |
| D.C. United clean sheet | 16% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Charlotte is the model's most likely outcome at
52%. Charlotte are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
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❓ Charlotte vs D.C. United — FAQ
Who will win Charlotte vs D.C. United?
Our statistical model makes Charlotte the most likely result at 52%. Full probabilities: Charlotte 52%, draw 25%, D.C. United 24%.
Will both teams score in Charlotte vs D.C. United?
The model gives a 57% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Charlotte vs D.C. United?
Expected goals are 1.85 for Charlotte and 1.03 for D.C. United — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Charlotte vs D.C. United?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Charlotte or draw is 79%.