Charlotte vs Houston Dynamo Prediction & Preview
MLS (USA) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 23:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MLS (USA)
Charlotte vs Houston Dynamo
Model pick: Charlotte (42%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.39 – 1.04
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 57%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Charlotte | Houston Dynamo |
|---|
| League position | #6 (21 pts) | #7 (22 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 1.0 | 1.6 / 2.4 |
| Win rate this season* | 56% | 29% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.2 | 1.0 / 0.4 |
*Charlotte shown at home, Houston Dynamo shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Charlotte — last 5
LWDWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 42% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Houston Dynamo — last 5
WWWLD
On the road: clean sheet 16% of the time; 57% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Charlotte (home) | Houston Dynamo (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-2-2 in 9 (2.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 2-1-4 in 7 (1.6 / 2.4 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 42% | 16% |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 57% |
| Top scorer | Pep Biel (10) | Guilherme (11) |
MLS (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 59%
Use these MLS (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.39 vs 1.04):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Charlotte or draw (1X) | 72% |
| Double chance — Houston Dynamo or draw (X2) | 55% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 70% / 30% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 23% / 77% |
| Charlotte clean sheet | 35% |
| Houston Dynamo clean sheet | 25% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Charlotte is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Charlotte are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Charlotte vs Houston Dynamo — FAQ
Who will win Charlotte vs Houston Dynamo?
Our statistical model makes Charlotte the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Charlotte 42%, draw 27%, Houston Dynamo 31%.
Will both teams score in Charlotte vs Houston Dynamo?
The model gives a 57% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Charlotte vs Houston Dynamo?
Expected goals are 1.39 for Charlotte and 1.04 for Houston Dynamo — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Charlotte vs Houston Dynamo?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Charlotte or draw is 72%.