Charlton Athletic vs Derby County Prediction & Preview
Championship (England) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
CHAMPIONSHIP (ENGLAND)
Charlton Athletic vs Derby County
Model pick: Derby County (36%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.04 – 1.13
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 43%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Charlton Athletic | Derby County |
|---|
| League position | #11 (0 pts) | #4 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 1.4 |
*Charlton Athletic shown at home, Derby County shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Charlton Athletic — last 5
WLWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 49% of home games go over 2.5.
Derby County — last 5
LWLDL
On the road: clean sheet 23% of the time; 49% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Charlton Athletic (home) | Derby County (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 49% |
Championship (England) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.54
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 51%
Use these Championship (England) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.04 vs 1.13):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Charlton Athletic or draw (1X) | 62% |
| Double chance — Derby County or draw (X2) | 67% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 64% / 36% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 17% / 83% |
| Charlton Athletic clean sheet | 32% |
| Derby County clean sheet | 35% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Derby County is the model's most likely outcome at
36%. Despite playing away, Derby County edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (57% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ Charlton Athletic vs Derby County — FAQ
Who will win Charlton Athletic vs Derby County?
Our statistical model makes Derby County the most likely result at 36%. Full probabilities: Charlton Athletic 35%, draw 29%, Derby County 36%.
Will both teams score in Charlton Athletic vs Derby County?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Charlton Athletic vs Derby County?
Expected goals are 1.04 for Charlton Athletic and 1.13 for Derby County — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Charlton Athletic vs Derby County?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Charlton Athletic or draw is 62%.