Chattanooga Red Wolves vs New York Cosmos Prediction & Preview
USL League One (USA) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 23:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
USL LEAGUE ONE (USA)
Chattanooga Red Wolves vs New York Cosmos
Model pick: Chattanooga Red Wolves (77%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
77%
Chattanooga Red Wolves
Expected goals: 2.72 – 0.59
Total goals: 3.3
Over 2.5: 59%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Chattanooga Red Wolves | New York Cosmos |
|---|
| League position | #8 (31 pts) | #17 (14 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.9 / 0.9 | 0.8 / 2.9 |
| Win rate this season* | 67% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 2.2 | 0.4 / 1.4 |
*Chattanooga Red Wolves shown at home, New York Cosmos shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Chattanooga Red Wolves — last 5
WWLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 75% of the time; 25% of home games go over 2.5.
New York Cosmos — last 5
DLLLW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Chattanooga Red Wolves (home) | New York Cosmos (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-0-3 in 9 (1.9 / 0.9 goals per game) | 0-0-9 in 9 (0.8 / 2.9 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 75% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 67% |
USL League One (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.88
Home wins: 55%
Draws: 18%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 57%
Use these USL League One (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.72 vs 0.59):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Chattanooga Red Wolves or draw (1X) | 94% |
| Double chance — New York Cosmos or draw (X2) | 18% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 88% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 84% / 16% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 42% / 58% |
| Chattanooga Red Wolves clean sheet | 55% |
| New York Cosmos clean sheet | 7% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Chattanooga Red Wolves is the model's most likely outcome at
77%. Chattanooga Red Wolves are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.3, this shapes as an open game (59% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Chattanooga Red Wolves vs New York Cosmos — FAQ
Who will win Chattanooga Red Wolves vs New York Cosmos?
Our statistical model makes Chattanooga Red Wolves the most likely result at 77%. Full probabilities: Chattanooga Red Wolves 77%, draw 15%, New York Cosmos 8%.
Will both teams score in Chattanooga Red Wolves vs New York Cosmos?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Chattanooga Red Wolves vs New York Cosmos?
Expected goals are 2.72 for Chattanooga Red Wolves and 0.59 for New York Cosmos — about 3.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Chattanooga Red Wolves vs New York Cosmos?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (14%). Double chance for Chattanooga Red Wolves or draw is 94%.