Chelmianka Chelm vs Wisloka Debica Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 19, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Chelmianka Chelm vs Wisloka Debica
Model pick: Chelmianka Chelm (65%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.31 – 0.11
Total goals: 1.4
Over 2.5: 30%
Both teams score: 25%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Chelmianka Chelm | Wisloka Debica |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.4 | 1.6 / 1.8 |
*Chelmianka Chelm shown at home, Wisloka Debica shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Chelmianka Chelm — last 5
LLWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 50% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Wisloka Debica — last 5
LLWDW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 0% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Chelmianka Chelm (home) | Wisloka Debica (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 50% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 0% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.15
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 62%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.31 vs 0.11):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (32%) |
| Double chance — Chelmianka Chelm or draw (1X) | 97% |
| Double chance — Wisloka Debica or draw (X2) | 31% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 42% / 58% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 6% / 94% |
| Chelmianka Chelm clean sheet | 90% |
| Wisloka Debica clean sheet | 27% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Chelmianka Chelm is the model's most likely outcome at
65%. Chelmianka Chelm are backed at home, where they average 2.0 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (70% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Chelmianka Chelm vs Wisloka Debica — FAQ
Who will win Chelmianka Chelm vs Wisloka Debica?
Our statistical model makes Chelmianka Chelm the most likely result at 65%. Full probabilities: Chelmianka Chelm 65%, draw 30%, Wisloka Debica 4%.
Will both teams score in Chelmianka Chelm vs Wisloka Debica?
The model gives a 25% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Chelmianka Chelm vs Wisloka Debica?
Expected goals are 1.31 for Chelmianka Chelm and 0.11 for Wisloka Debica — about 1.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Chelmianka Chelm vs Wisloka Debica?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (32%). Double chance for Chelmianka Chelm or draw is 97%.