Chemik Bydgoszcz vs Baltyk Koszalin Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Chemik Bydgoszcz vs Baltyk Koszalin
Model pick: Baltyk Koszalin (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.87 – 1.04
Total goals: 1.9
Over 2.5: 39%
Both teams score: 46%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Chemik Bydgoszcz | Baltyk Koszalin |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 2.6 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
*Chemik Bydgoszcz shown at home, Baltyk Koszalin shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Chemik Bydgoszcz — last 5
DLLDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 75% of home games go over 2.5.
Baltyk Koszalin — last 5
DLWDW
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 33% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Chemik Bydgoszcz (home) | Baltyk Koszalin (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 33% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.23
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 62%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.87 vs 1.04):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (15%) |
| Double chance — Chemik Bydgoszcz or draw (1X) | 61% |
| Double chance — Baltyk Koszalin or draw (X2) | 70% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 68% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 57% / 43% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 13% / 87% |
| Chemik Bydgoszcz clean sheet | 35% |
| Baltyk Koszalin clean sheet | 42% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Baltyk Koszalin is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Despite playing away, Baltyk Koszalin edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (61% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Chemik Bydgoszcz vs Baltyk Koszalin — FAQ
Who will win Chemik Bydgoszcz vs Baltyk Koszalin?
Our statistical model makes Baltyk Koszalin the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Chemik Bydgoszcz 30%, draw 32%, Baltyk Koszalin 38%.
Will both teams score in Chemik Bydgoszcz vs Baltyk Koszalin?
The model gives a 46% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Chemik Bydgoszcz vs Baltyk Koszalin?
Expected goals are 0.87 for Chemik Bydgoszcz and 1.04 for Baltyk Koszalin — about 1.9 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Chemik Bydgoszcz vs Baltyk Koszalin?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (15%). Double chance for Chemik Bydgoszcz or draw is 61%.