Chemik Bydgoszcz vs Sroda Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 14, 2026 · kickoff 16:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Chemik Bydgoszcz vs Sroda
Model pick: Draw (69%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.11 – 0.2
Total goals: 0.3
Over 2.5: 5%
Both teams score: 15%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Chemik Bydgoszcz | Sroda |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 3.0 / 1.0 | 1.0 / 1.2 |
*Chemik Bydgoszcz shown at home, Sroda shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Chemik Bydgoszcz — last 5
WWWDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of home games go over 2.5.
Sroda — last 5
LLLWW
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Chemik Bydgoszcz (home) | Sroda (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 67% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.15
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 62%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.11 vs 0.2):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (73%) |
| Double chance — Chemik Bydgoszcz or draw (1X) | 84% |
| Double chance — Sroda or draw (X2) | 91% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 25% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 4% / 96% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 0% / 100% |
| Chemik Bydgoszcz clean sheet | 82% |
| Sroda clean sheet | 90% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Draw is the model's most likely outcome at
69%. The model sees no clear favourite — a draw is live. Goals may be harder to come by (95% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Chemik Bydgoszcz vs Sroda — FAQ
Who will win Chemik Bydgoszcz vs Sroda?
Our statistical model makes Draw the most likely result at 69%. Full probabilities: Chemik Bydgoszcz 11%, draw 69%, Sroda 19%.
Will both teams score in Chemik Bydgoszcz vs Sroda?
The model gives a 15% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Chemik Bydgoszcz vs Sroda?
Expected goals are 0.11 for Chemik Bydgoszcz and 0.2 for Sroda — about 0.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Chemik Bydgoszcz vs Sroda?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (73%). Double chance for Chemik Bydgoszcz or draw is 84%.