Chemik Bydgoszcz vs Swinoujscie Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 10:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Chemik Bydgoszcz vs Swinoujscie
Model pick: Chemik Bydgoszcz (46%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.46 – 0.98
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Chemik Bydgoszcz | Swinoujscie |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 3.0 / 1.8 | 1.2 / 1.0 |
*Chemik Bydgoszcz shown at home, Swinoujscie shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Chemik Bydgoszcz — last 5
WWDDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of home games go over 2.5.
Swinoujscie — last 5
LDLWW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 75% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Chemik Bydgoszcz (home) | Swinoujscie (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 75% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.23
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 59%
BTTS: 67%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.46 vs 0.98):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Chemik Bydgoszcz or draw (1X) | 75% |
| Double chance — Swinoujscie or draw (X2) | 52% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 70% / 30% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 23% / 77% |
| Chemik Bydgoszcz clean sheet | 38% |
| Swinoujscie clean sheet | 23% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Chemik Bydgoszcz is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. Chemik Bydgoszcz are backed at home, where they average 2.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Chemik Bydgoszcz vs Swinoujscie — FAQ
Who will win Chemik Bydgoszcz vs Swinoujscie?
Our statistical model makes Chemik Bydgoszcz the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: Chemik Bydgoszcz 46%, draw 28%, Swinoujscie 27%.
Will both teams score in Chemik Bydgoszcz vs Swinoujscie?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Chemik Bydgoszcz vs Swinoujscie?
Expected goals are 1.46 for Chemik Bydgoszcz and 0.98 for Swinoujscie — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Chemik Bydgoszcz vs Swinoujscie?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Chemik Bydgoszcz or draw is 75%.