Chemnitzer FC vs Erzgebirge Aue Prediction & Preview
Regionalliga (Germany) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
REGIONALLIGA (GERMANY)
Chemnitzer FC vs Erzgebirge Aue
Model pick: Chemnitzer FC (85%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 3.37 – 0.54
Total goals: 3.9
Over 2.5: 66%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Chemnitzer FC | Erzgebirge Aue |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.0 | 2.4 / 2.0 |
*Chemnitzer FC shown at home, Erzgebirge Aue shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Chemnitzer FC — last 5
LWWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 36% of the time; 56% of home games go over 2.5.
Erzgebirge Aue — last 5
LDWWW
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 57% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Chemnitzer FC (home) | Erzgebirge Aue (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 36% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 57% |
Regionalliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.23
Home wins: 35%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 62%
Use these Regionalliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (3.37 vs 0.54):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 3-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Chemnitzer FC or draw (1X) | 97% |
| Double chance — Erzgebirge Aue or draw (X2) | 11% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 92% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 90% / 10% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 55% / 45% |
| Chemnitzer FC clean sheet | 58% |
| Erzgebirge Aue clean sheet | 3% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Chemnitzer FC is the model's most likely outcome at
85%. Chemnitzer FC are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.9, this shapes as an open game (66% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Chemnitzer FC vs Erzgebirge Aue — FAQ
Who will win Chemnitzer FC vs Erzgebirge Aue?
Our statistical model makes Chemnitzer FC the most likely result at 85%. Full probabilities: Chemnitzer FC 85%, draw 11%, Erzgebirge Aue 5%.
Will both teams score in Chemnitzer FC vs Erzgebirge Aue?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Chemnitzer FC vs Erzgebirge Aue?
Expected goals are 3.37 for Chemnitzer FC and 0.54 for Erzgebirge Aue — about 3.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Chemnitzer FC vs Erzgebirge Aue?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 3-0 (13%). Double chance for Chemnitzer FC or draw is 97%.