Cheonan City vs Hwaseong Prediction & Preview
K League 2 (South Korea) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 10:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
K LEAGUE 2 (SOUTH KOREA)
Cheonan City vs Hwaseong
Model pick: Hwaseong (44%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.07 – 1.44
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Cheonan City | Hwaseong |
|---|
| League position | #14 (21 pts) | #5 (39 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.8 / 0.9 | 1.1 / 0.9 |
| Win rate this season* | 18% | 43% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.6 | 1.4 / 0.6 |
*Cheonan City shown at home, Hwaseong shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Cheonan City — last 5
DLDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 28% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Hwaseong — last 5
WDDLW
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 47% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Cheonan City (home) | Hwaseong (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-6-3 in 11 (0.8 / 0.9 goals per game) | 3-1-3 in 7 (1.1 / 0.9 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 28% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 47% |
K League 2 (South Korea) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.51
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 51%
Use these K League 2 (South Korea) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.07 vs 1.44):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Cheonan City or draw (1X) | 54% |
| Double chance — Hwaseong or draw (X2) | 72% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| Cheonan City clean sheet | 24% |
| Hwaseong clean sheet | 34% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Hwaseong is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Despite playing away, Hwaseong edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Cheonan City vs Hwaseong — FAQ
Who will win Cheonan City vs Hwaseong?
Our statistical model makes Hwaseong the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Cheonan City 29%, draw 27%, Hwaseong 44%.
Will both teams score in Cheonan City vs Hwaseong?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Cheonan City vs Hwaseong?
Expected goals are 1.07 for Cheonan City and 1.44 for Hwaseong — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Cheonan City vs Hwaseong?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Cheonan City or draw is 54%.