Cherno More vs Dunav Prediction & Preview
A PFG (Bulgaria) · Aug 21, 2026 · kickoff 18:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A PFG (BULGARIA)
Cherno More vs Dunav
Model pick: Cherno More (54%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.67 – 0.62
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 47%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Cherno More | Dunav |
|---|
| League position | #12 (1 pts) | #14 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 3.0 | 1.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 2.4 | 0.6 / 1.8 |
*Cherno More shown at home, Dunav shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Cherno More — last 5
DLLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 46% of the time; 37% of home games go over 2.5.
Dunav — last 5
DLLLL
On the road: clean sheet 17% of the time; 51% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Cherno More (home) | Dunav (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-2 in 2 (1.0 / 3.0 goals per game) | 0-0-2 in 2 (1.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 46% | 17% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 51% |
| Top scorer | Georgi Lazarov (5) | – |
A PFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.44
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 43%
Use these A PFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.67 vs 0.62):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (17%) |
| Double chance — Cherno More or draw (1X) | 87% |
| Double chance — Dunav or draw (X2) | 37% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 67% / 33% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| Cherno More clean sheet | 54% |
| Dunav clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Cherno More is the model's most likely outcome at
54%. Cherno More are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Cherno More vs Dunav — FAQ
Who will win Cherno More vs Dunav?
Our statistical model makes Cherno More the most likely result at 54%. Full probabilities: Cherno More 54%, draw 27%, Dunav 19%.
Will both teams score in Cherno More vs Dunav?
The model gives a 47% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Cherno More vs Dunav?
Expected goals are 1.67 for Cherno More and 0.62 for Dunav — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Cherno More vs Dunav?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (17%). Double chance for Cherno More or draw is 87%.