Cherno More vs Ludogorets Prediction & Preview
A PFG (Bulgaria) · Aug 08, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A PFG (BULGARIA)
Cherno More vs Ludogorets
Model pick: Ludogorets (49%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.74 – 1.37
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 47%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Cherno More | Ludogorets |
|---|
| League position | #12 (1 pts) | #2 (9 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 3.0 | 2.0 / 0.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.6 | 1.4 / 1.0 |
*Cherno More shown at home, Ludogorets shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Cherno More — last 5
DDDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 46% of the time; 37% of home games go over 2.5.
Ludogorets — last 5
WLWDW
On the road: clean sheet 48% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Cherno More (home) | Ludogorets (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 3.0 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (2.0 / 0.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 46% | 48% |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 42% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 50% |
| Top scorer | Georgi Lazarov (5) | – |
A PFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.44
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 43%
Use these A PFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.74 vs 1.37):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (17%) |
| Double chance — Cherno More or draw (1X) | 48% |
| Double chance — Ludogorets or draw (X2) | 80% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 62% / 38% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 16% / 84% |
| Cherno More clean sheet | 25% |
| Ludogorets clean sheet | 48% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Ludogorets is the model's most likely outcome at
49%. Despite playing away, Ludogorets edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Cherno More vs Ludogorets — FAQ
Who will win Cherno More vs Ludogorets?
Our statistical model makes Ludogorets the most likely result at 49%. Full probabilities: Cherno More 22%, draw 29%, Ludogorets 49%.
Will both teams score in Cherno More vs Ludogorets?
The model gives a 47% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Cherno More vs Ludogorets?
Expected goals are 0.74 for Cherno More and 1.37 for Ludogorets — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Cherno More vs Ludogorets?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (17%). Double chance for Cherno More or draw is 48%.