Cherno More vs Spartak Varna Prediction & Preview
A PFG (Bulgaria) · Jul 26, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A PFG (BULGARIA)
Cherno More vs Spartak Varna
Model pick: Cherno More (60%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.83 – 0.71
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Cherno More | Spartak Varna |
|---|
| League position | #7 (1 pts) | #4 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 0.8 | 2.6 / 1.4 |
*Cherno More shown at home, Spartak Varna shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Cherno More — last 5
WWDDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 47% of the time; 36% of home games go over 2.5.
Spartak Varna — last 5
WLDWD
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 44% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Cherno More (home) | Spartak Varna (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 47% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 44% |
| Top scorer | Georgi Lazarov (5) | Georg Stojanovski (7) |
A PFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.43
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 43%
Use these A PFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.83 vs 0.71):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Cherno More or draw (1X) | 86% |
| Double chance — Spartak Varna or draw (X2) | 36% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| Cherno More clean sheet | 49% |
| Spartak Varna clean sheet | 16% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Cherno More is the model's most likely outcome at
60%. Cherno More are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Cherno More vs Spartak Varna — FAQ
Who will win Cherno More vs Spartak Varna?
Our statistical model makes Cherno More the most likely result at 60%. Full probabilities: Cherno More 60%, draw 24%, Spartak Varna 16%.
Will both teams score in Cherno More vs Spartak Varna?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Cherno More vs Spartak Varna?
Expected goals are 1.83 for Cherno More and 0.71 for Spartak Varna — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Cherno More vs Spartak Varna?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Cherno More or draw is 86%.