Chertanovo M. vs Murom Prediction & Preview
FNL 2 Division B (Russia) · Aug 09, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
FNL 2 DIVISION B (RUSSIA)
Chertanovo M. vs Murom
Model pick: Murom (66%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.23 – 2.83
Total goals: 4.1
Over 2.5: 67%
Both teams score: 60%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Chertanovo M. | Murom |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.33 / 1.67 | 2.0 / 0.67 |
*Chertanovo M. shown at home, Murom shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Chertanovo M. — last 5
DDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 0% of home games go over 2.5.
Murom — last 5
WWW
On the road: clean sheet 50% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Chertanovo M. (home) | Murom (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 50% |
FNL 2 Division B (Russia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.2
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 67%
BTTS: 60%
Use these FNL 2 Division B (Russia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.23 vs 2.83):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-2 (9%) |
| Double chance — Chertanovo M. or draw (1X) | 30% |
| Double chance — Murom or draw (X2) | 86% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 84% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 91% / 9% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 58% / 42% |
| Chertanovo M. clean sheet | 6% |
| Murom clean sheet | 29% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Murom is the model's most likely outcome at
66%. Despite playing away, Murom edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 4.1, this shapes as an open game (67% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Chertanovo M. vs Murom — FAQ
Who will win Chertanovo M. vs Murom?
Our statistical model makes Murom the most likely result at 66%. Full probabilities: Chertanovo M. 16%, draw 18%, Murom 66%.
Will both teams score in Chertanovo M. vs Murom?
The model gives a 60% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Chertanovo M. vs Murom?
Expected goals are 1.23 for Chertanovo M. and 2.83 for Murom — about 4.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Chertanovo M. vs Murom?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-2 (9%). Double chance for Chertanovo M. or draw is 30%.