Chertanovo M. vs Tver Prediction & Preview
FNL 2 Division B (Russia) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
FNL 2 DIVISION B (RUSSIA)
Chertanovo M. vs Tver
Model pick: Chertanovo M. (49%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.52 – 1.88
Total goals: 4.4
Over 2.5: 70%
Both teams score: 66%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Chertanovo M. | Tver |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.4 | 2.4 / 1.4 |
*Chertanovo M. shown at home, Tver shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Chertanovo M. — last 5
DDLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Tver — last 5
WWLLW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Chertanovo M. (home) | Tver (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 67% |
FNL 2 Division B (Russia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.1
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 62%
Use these FNL 2 Division B (Russia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.52 vs 1.88):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (7%) |
| Double chance — Chertanovo M. or draw (1X) | 71% |
| Double chance — Tver or draw (X2) | 48% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 81% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 93% / 7% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 64% / 36% |
| Chertanovo M. clean sheet | 15% |
| Tver clean sheet | 8% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Chertanovo M. is the model's most likely outcome at
49%. Chertanovo M. are backed at home, where they average 1.0 goals a game. With expected goals of 4.4, this shapes as an open game (70% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Chertanovo M. vs Tver — FAQ
Who will win Chertanovo M. vs Tver?
Our statistical model makes Chertanovo M. the most likely result at 49%. Full probabilities: Chertanovo M. 49%, draw 21%, Tver 30%.
Will both teams score in Chertanovo M. vs Tver?
The model gives a 66% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Chertanovo M. vs Tver?
Expected goals are 2.52 for Chertanovo M. and 1.88 for Tver — about 4.4 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Chertanovo M. vs Tver?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (7%). Double chance for Chertanovo M. or draw is 71%.