Chertsey vs Yate Town Prediction & Preview
Non League Premier (England) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
NON LEAGUE PREMIER (ENGLAND)
Chertsey vs Yate Town
Model pick: Chertsey (42%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.84 – 0.41
Total goals: 1.2
Over 2.5: 26%
Both teams score: 36%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Chertsey | Yate Town |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.4 / 1.0 | 0.8 / 1.4 |
*Chertsey shown at home, Yate Town shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Chertsey — last 5
DWWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 20% of the time; 60% of home games go over 2.5.
Yate Town — last 5
LLLWD
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Chertsey (home) | Yate Town (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 20% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 67% |
Non League Premier (England) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.73
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 19%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Non League Premier (England) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.84 vs 0.41):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (29%) |
| Double chance — Chertsey or draw (1X) | 83% |
| Double chance — Yate Town or draw (X2) | 56% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 61% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 36% / 64% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 4% / 96% |
| Chertsey clean sheet | 66% |
| Yate Town clean sheet | 43% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Chertsey is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Chertsey are backed at home, where they average 2.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (74% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Chertsey vs Yate Town — FAQ
Who will win Chertsey vs Yate Town?
Our statistical model makes Chertsey the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Chertsey 42%, draw 39%, Yate Town 19%.
Will both teams score in Chertsey vs Yate Town?
The model gives a 36% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Chertsey vs Yate Town?
Expected goals are 0.84 for Chertsey and 0.41 for Yate Town — about 1.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Chertsey vs Yate Town?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (29%). Double chance for Chertsey or draw is 83%.