Chesterfield vs Gillingham Prediction & Preview
League Two (England) · Sep 01, 2026 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LEAGUE TWO (ENGLAND)
Chesterfield vs Gillingham
Model pick: Chesterfield (52%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.59 – 0.84
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Chesterfield | Gillingham |
|---|
| League position | #16 (3 pts) | #21 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 1.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.2 | 0.6 / 1.4 |
*Chesterfield shown at home, Gillingham shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Chesterfield — last 5
LDLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Gillingham — last 5
WWLLD
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 41% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Chesterfield (home) | Gillingham (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-1-0 in 1 (0.0 / 0.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 41% |
| Top scorer | Tom Naylor (8) | – |
League Two (England) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.55
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 52%
Use these League Two (England) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.59 vs 0.84):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Chesterfield or draw (1X) | 80% |
| Double chance — Gillingham or draw (X2) | 45% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 70% / 30% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 23% / 77% |
| Chesterfield clean sheet | 43% |
| Gillingham clean sheet | 20% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Chesterfield is the model's most likely outcome at
52%. Chesterfield are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ Chesterfield vs Gillingham — FAQ
Who will win Chesterfield vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model makes Chesterfield the most likely result at 52%. Full probabilities: Chesterfield 52%, draw 26%, Gillingham 22%.
Will both teams score in Chesterfield vs Gillingham?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Chesterfield vs Gillingham?
Expected goals are 1.59 for Chesterfield and 0.84 for Gillingham — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Chesterfield vs Gillingham?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Chesterfield or draw is 80%.