Chiangrai United vs Chonburi Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Thailand) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 11:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (THAILAND)
Chiangrai United vs Chonburi
Model pick: Chiangrai United (45%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.44 – 0.98
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Chiangrai United | Chonburi |
|---|
| League position | #6 (0 pts) | #4 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 0.2 | 1.6 / 1.2 |
*Chiangrai United shown at home, Chonburi shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Chiangrai United — last 5
DWWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Chonburi — last 5
WLDDW
On the road: clean sheet 17% of the time; 56% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Chiangrai United (home) | Chonburi (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 17% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 56% |
| Top scorer | Itsuki Enomoto (6) | Oege-Sietse van Lingen (8) |
Premier League (Thailand) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Premier League (Thailand) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.44 vs 0.98):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Chiangrai United or draw (1X) | 74% |
| Double chance — Chonburi or draw (X2) | 52% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 70% / 30% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 23% / 77% |
| Chiangrai United clean sheet | 38% |
| Chonburi clean sheet | 24% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Chiangrai United is the model's most likely outcome at
45%. Chiangrai United are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Chiangrai United vs Chonburi — FAQ
Who will win Chiangrai United vs Chonburi?
Our statistical model makes Chiangrai United the most likely result at 45%. Full probabilities: Chiangrai United 45%, draw 28%, Chonburi 27%.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Chonburi?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Chiangrai United vs Chonburi?
Expected goals are 1.44 for Chiangrai United and 0.98 for Chonburi — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Chiangrai United vs Chonburi?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Chiangrai United or draw is 74%.