Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers Prediction & Preview
MLS (USA) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 22:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MLS (USA)
Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers
Model pick: Chicago Fire (55%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.76 – 1.43
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 58%
Both teams score: 63%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Chicago Fire | Portland Timbers |
|---|
| League position | #3 (26 pts) | #11 (17 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 1.1 | 1.4 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 62% | 22% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.6 | 2.4 / 1.8 |
*Chicago Fire shown at home, Portland Timbers shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Chicago Fire — last 5
LLWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 59% of home games go over 2.5.
Portland Timbers — last 5
DWWWL
On the road: clean sheet 15% of the time; 63% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Chicago Fire (home) | Portland Timbers (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-0-3 in 8 (2.0 / 1.1 goals per game) | 2-1-6 in 9 (1.4 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 15% |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 69% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 63% |
| Top scorer | Hugo Cuypers (13) | Kevin Kelsy (8) |
MLS (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 59%
Use these MLS (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.76 vs 1.43):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Chicago Fire or draw (1X) | 69% |
| Double chance — Portland Timbers or draw (X2) | 55% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 83% / 17% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 40% / 60% |
| Chicago Fire clean sheet | 24% |
| Portland Timbers clean sheet | 17% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Chicago Fire is the model's most likely outcome at
55%. Chicago Fire are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (58% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers — FAQ
Who will win Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers?
Our statistical model makes Chicago Fire the most likely result at 55%. Full probabilities: Chicago Fire 55%, draw 22%, Portland Timbers 23%.
Will both teams score in Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers?
The model gives a 63% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers?
Expected goals are 1.76 for Chicago Fire and 1.43 for Portland Timbers — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Chicago Fire or draw is 69%.