Chivilcoy vs San Martin Formosa Prediction & Preview
Argentino A (Argentina) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ARGENTINO A (ARGENTINA)
Chivilcoy vs San Martin Formosa
Model pick: Draw (42%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.67 – 0.46
Total goals: 1.1
Over 2.5: 24%
Both teams score: 35%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Chivilcoy | San Martin Formosa |
|---|
| League position | #3 (26 pts) | #1 (27 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.1 / 0.0 | 1.2 / 1.6 |
| Win rate this season* | 67% | 38% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.75 / 0.5 | 1.4 / 0.8 |
*Chivilcoy shown at home, San Martin Formosa shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Chivilcoy — last 5
WDDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 100% of the time; 0% of home games go over 2.5.
San Martin Formosa — last 5
DLWWW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Chivilcoy (home) | San Martin Formosa (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-3-0 in 9 (1.1 / 0.0 goals per game) | 3-1-4 in 8 (1.2 / 1.6 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 100% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 50% |
Argentino A (Argentina) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.04
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 33%
Away wins: 23%
Over 2.5: 36%
BTTS: 39%
Use these Argentino A (Argentina) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.67 vs 0.46):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (32%) |
| Double chance — Chivilcoy or draw (1X) | 78% |
| Double chance — San Martin Formosa or draw (X2) | 65% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 57% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 31% / 69% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 3% / 97% |
| Chivilcoy clean sheet | 63% |
| San Martin Formosa clean sheet | 51% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Draw is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. The model sees no clear favourite — a draw is live. Goals may be harder to come by (76% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Chivilcoy vs San Martin Formosa — FAQ
Who will win Chivilcoy vs San Martin Formosa?
Our statistical model makes Draw the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Chivilcoy 35%, draw 42%, San Martin Formosa 23%.
Will both teams score in Chivilcoy vs San Martin Formosa?
The model gives a 35% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Chivilcoy vs San Martin Formosa?
Expected goals are 0.67 for Chivilcoy and 0.46 for San Martin Formosa — about 1.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Chivilcoy vs San Martin Formosa?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (32%). Double chance for Chivilcoy or draw is 78%.