Chongqing Tonglianglong vs Shanghai Shenhua Prediction & Preview
Super League (China) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 11:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LEAGUE (CHINA)
Chongqing Tonglianglong vs Shanghai Shenhua
Model pick: Shanghai Shenhua (48%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
25%
Chongqing Tonglianglong
Expected goals: 0.67 – 1.35
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 41%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Chongqing Tonglianglong | Shanghai Shenhua |
|---|
| League position | #8 (31 pts) | #9 (28 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.3 / 1.2 | 1.8 / 1.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 42% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.4 | 2.4 / 2.2 |
*Chongqing Tonglianglong shown at home, Shanghai Shenhua shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Chongqing Tonglianglong — last 5
LLDLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 25% of home games go over 2.5.
Shanghai Shenhua — last 5
WWLWL
On the road: clean sheet 30% of the time; 49% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Chongqing Tonglianglong (home) | Shanghai Shenhua (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-5-3 in 12 (1.3 / 1.2 goals per game) | 5-3-4 in 12 (1.8 / 1.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 49% |
Super League (China) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Super League (China) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.67 vs 1.35):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (18%) |
| Double chance — Chongqing Tonglianglong or draw (1X) | 47% |
| Double chance — Shanghai Shenhua or draw (X2) | 81% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 60% / 40% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 15% / 85% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong clean sheet | 26% |
| Shanghai Shenhua clean sheet | 51% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Shanghai Shenhua is the model's most likely outcome at
48%. Despite playing away, Shanghai Shenhua edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (59% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Chongqing Tonglianglong vs Shanghai Shenhua — FAQ
Who will win Chongqing Tonglianglong vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model makes Shanghai Shenhua the most likely result at 48%. Full probabilities: Chongqing Tonglianglong 25%, draw 27%, Shanghai Shenhua 48%.
Will both teams score in Chongqing Tonglianglong vs Shanghai Shenhua?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Chongqing Tonglianglong vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Expected goals are 0.67 for Chongqing Tonglianglong and 1.35 for Shanghai Shenhua — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Chongqing Tonglianglong vs Shanghai Shenhua?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (18%). Double chance for Chongqing Tonglianglong or draw is 47%.