Chongqing Tonglianglong vs Shanghai SIPG Prediction & Preview
Super League (China) · Aug 09, 2026 · kickoff 11:35 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LEAGUE (CHINA)
Chongqing Tonglianglong vs Shanghai SIPG
Model pick: Shanghai SIPG (50%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
24%
Chongqing Tonglianglong
Expected goals: 0.59 – 1.78
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Chongqing Tonglianglong | Shanghai SIPG |
|---|
| League position | #3 (29 pts) | #13 (19 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.4 / 1.0 | 1.2 / 1.6 |
| Win rate this season* | 40% | 20% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.0 | 1.2 / 1.2 |
*Chongqing Tonglianglong shown at home, Shanghai SIPG shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Chongqing Tonglianglong — last 5
DDWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 50% of the time; 0% of home games go over 2.5.
Shanghai SIPG — last 5
LDDWL
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 58% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Chongqing Tonglianglong (home) | Shanghai SIPG (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-5-1 in 10 (1.4 / 1.0 goals per game) | 2-3-5 in 10 (1.2 / 1.6 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 50% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 58% |
Super League (China) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.94
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Super League (China) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.59 vs 1.78):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (17%) |
| Double chance — Chongqing Tonglianglong or draw (1X) | 34% |
| Double chance — Shanghai SIPG or draw (X2) | 88% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 21% / 79% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong clean sheet | 17% |
| Shanghai SIPG clean sheet | 55% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Shanghai SIPG is the model's most likely outcome at
50%. Despite playing away, Shanghai SIPG edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Chongqing Tonglianglong vs Shanghai SIPG — FAQ
Who will win Chongqing Tonglianglong vs Shanghai SIPG?
Our statistical model makes Shanghai SIPG the most likely result at 50%. Full probabilities: Chongqing Tonglianglong 24%, draw 26%, Shanghai SIPG 50%.
Will both teams score in Chongqing Tonglianglong vs Shanghai SIPG?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Chongqing Tonglianglong vs Shanghai SIPG?
Expected goals are 0.59 for Chongqing Tonglianglong and 1.78 for Shanghai SIPG — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Chongqing Tonglianglong vs Shanghai SIPG?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (17%). Double chance for Chongqing Tonglianglong or draw is 34%.