Chorley vs Chester Prediction & Preview
National League N/S (England) · Aug 08, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
NATIONAL LEAGUE N/S (ENGLAND)
Chorley vs Chester
Model pick: Chorley (39%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.32 – 1.17
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Chorley | Chester |
|---|
| League position | #19 (0 pts) | #2 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.4 / 1.6 | 1.2 / 0.2 |
*Chorley shown at home, Chester shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Chorley — last 5
LLDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 37% of the time; 54% of home games go over 2.5.
Chester — last 5
WLWWD
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Chorley (home) | Chester (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 37% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 54% |
National League N/S (England) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.79
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 54%
Use these National League N/S (England) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.32 vs 1.17):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Chorley or draw (1X) | 67% |
| Double chance — Chester or draw (X2) | 60% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| Chorley clean sheet | 31% |
| Chester clean sheet | 27% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Chorley is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Chorley are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ Chorley vs Chester — FAQ
Who will win Chorley vs Chester?
Our statistical model makes Chorley the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Chorley 39%, draw 28%, Chester 33%.
Will both teams score in Chorley vs Chester?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Chorley vs Chester?
Expected goals are 1.32 for Chorley and 1.17 for Chester — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Chorley vs Chester?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Chorley or draw is 67%.