Chorley vs Darlington Prediction & Preview
National League N/S (England) · Sep 08, 2026 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
NATIONAL LEAGUE N/S (ENGLAND)
Chorley vs Darlington
Model pick: Chorley (46%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.64 – 1.15
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Chorley | Darlington |
|---|
| League position | #19 (0 pts) | #1 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 1.8 |
*Chorley shown at home, Darlington shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Chorley — last 5
LWWDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 37% of the time; 55% of home games go over 2.5.
Darlington — last 5
WLLLW
On the road: clean sheet 23% of the time; 59% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Chorley (home) | Darlington (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 37% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 59% |
National League N/S (England) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.79
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 54%
Use these National League N/S (England) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.64 vs 1.15):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Chorley or draw (1X) | 73% |
| Double chance — Darlington or draw (X2) | 51% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 77% / 23% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 31% / 69% |
| Chorley clean sheet | 32% |
| Darlington clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Chorley is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. Chorley are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Chorley vs Darlington — FAQ
Who will win Chorley vs Darlington?
Our statistical model makes Chorley the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: Chorley 46%, draw 26%, Darlington 28%.
Will both teams score in Chorley vs Darlington?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Chorley vs Darlington?
Expected goals are 1.64 for Chorley and 1.15 for Darlington — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Chorley vs Darlington?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Chorley or draw is 73%.