Chorley vs Scarborough Athletic Prediction & Preview
National League N/S (England) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
NATIONAL LEAGUE N/S (ENGLAND)
Chorley vs Scarborough Athletic
Model pick: Chorley (44%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.44 – 1.07
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Chorley | Scarborough Athletic |
|---|
| League position | #19 (0 pts) | #23 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.8 | 1.2 / 1.6 |
*Chorley shown at home, Scarborough Athletic shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Chorley — last 5
DLLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 37% of the time; 55% of home games go over 2.5.
Scarborough Athletic — last 5
LWLLW
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 46% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Chorley (home) | Scarborough Athletic (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 37% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 46% |
National League N/S (England) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.79
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 54%
Use these National League N/S (England) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.44 vs 1.07):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Chorley or draw (1X) | 72% |
| Double chance — Scarborough Athletic or draw (X2) | 54% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| Chorley clean sheet | 34% |
| Scarborough Athletic clean sheet | 24% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Chorley is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Chorley are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Chorley vs Scarborough Athletic — FAQ
Who will win Chorley vs Scarborough Athletic?
Our statistical model makes Chorley the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Chorley 44%, draw 27%, Scarborough Athletic 29%.
Will both teams score in Chorley vs Scarborough Athletic?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Chorley vs Scarborough Athletic?
Expected goals are 1.44 for Chorley and 1.07 for Scarborough Athletic — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Chorley vs Scarborough Athletic?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Chorley or draw is 72%.