Chuncheon vs Ulsan Citizen Prediction & Preview
K League 3 (South Korea) · Jul 26, 2026 · kickoff 10:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
K LEAGUE 3 (SOUTH KOREA)
Chuncheon vs Ulsan Citizen
Model pick: Chuncheon (35%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.98 – 0.94
Total goals: 1.9
Over 2.5: 39%
Both teams score: 46%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Chuncheon | Ulsan Citizen |
|---|
| League position | #11 (17 pts) | #9 (19 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 1.4 | 1.1 / 1.4 |
| Win rate this season* | 30% | 29% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.8 | 2.0 / 1.0 |
*Chuncheon shown at home, Ulsan Citizen shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Chuncheon — last 5
LLLLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 21% of the time; 53% of home games go over 2.5.
Ulsan Citizen — last 5
WDWWW
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 47% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Chuncheon (home) | Ulsan Citizen (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-4-3 in 10 (2.0 / 1.4 goals per game) | 2-2-3 in 7 (1.1 / 1.4 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 21% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% |
K League 3 (South Korea) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.41
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 50%
Use these K League 3 (South Korea) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.98 vs 0.94):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — Chuncheon or draw (1X) | 67% |
| Double chance — Ulsan Citizen or draw (X2) | 65% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 68% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 57% / 43% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 13% / 87% |
| Chuncheon clean sheet | 39% |
| Ulsan Citizen clean sheet | 38% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Chuncheon is the model's most likely outcome at
35%. Chuncheon are backed at home, where they average 1.1 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (61% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Chuncheon vs Ulsan Citizen — FAQ
Who will win Chuncheon vs Ulsan Citizen?
Our statistical model makes Chuncheon the most likely result at 35%. Full probabilities: Chuncheon 35%, draw 32%, Ulsan Citizen 33%.
Will both teams score in Chuncheon vs Ulsan Citizen?
The model gives a 46% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Chuncheon vs Ulsan Citizen?
Expected goals are 0.98 for Chuncheon and 0.94 for Ulsan Citizen — about 1.9 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Chuncheon vs Ulsan Citizen?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (15%). Double chance for Chuncheon or draw is 67%.