Cincinnati vs New York City Prediction & Preview
MLS (USA) · Aug 19, 2026 · kickoff 23:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MLS (USA)
Cincinnati vs New York City
Model pick: Cincinnati (43%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.46 – 1.27
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 62%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Cincinnati | New York City |
|---|
| League position | #7 (20 pts) | #8 (19 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.9 / 2.0 | 0.9 / 1.1 |
| Win rate this season* | 57% | 29% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.4 | 1.8 / 1.2 |
*Cincinnati shown at home, New York City shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Cincinnati — last 5
LWWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 56% of home games go over 2.5.
New York City — last 5
WWWLL
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 49% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Cincinnati (home) | New York City (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-1-2 in 7 (2.9 / 2.0 goals per game) | 2-2-3 in 7 (0.9 / 1.1 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 49% |
| Top scorer | – | Nicolas Mercau (13) |
MLS (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 59%
Use these MLS (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.46 vs 1.27):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Cincinnati or draw (1X) | 67% |
| Double chance — New York City or draw (X2) | 58% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| Cincinnati clean sheet | 28% |
| New York City clean sheet | 23% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Cincinnati is the model's most likely outcome at
43%. Cincinnati are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Cincinnati vs New York City — FAQ
Who will win Cincinnati vs New York City?
Our statistical model makes Cincinnati the most likely result at 43%. Full probabilities: Cincinnati 43%, draw 25%, New York City 32%.
Will both teams score in Cincinnati vs New York City?
The model gives a 62% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Cincinnati vs New York City?
Expected goals are 1.46 for Cincinnati and 1.27 for New York City — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Cincinnati vs New York City?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Cincinnati or draw is 67%.