Cincinnati vs SJ Earthquakes Prediction & Preview
MLS (USA) · Aug 01, 2026 · kickoff 23:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MLS (USA)
Cincinnati vs SJ Earthquakes
Model pick: Cincinnati (50%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.02 – 1.25
Total goals: 3.3
Over 2.5: 58%
Both teams score: 66%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Cincinnati | SJ Earthquakes |
|---|
| League position | #7 (20 pts) | #2 (32 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.9 / 2.0 | 2.2 / 1.1 |
| Win rate this season* | 57% | 75% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 2.2 | 1.0 / 2.4 |
*Cincinnati shown at home, SJ Earthquakes shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Cincinnati — last 5
WLWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 55% of home games go over 2.5.
SJ Earthquakes — last 5
LWLLD
On the road: clean sheet 13% of the time; 66% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Cincinnati (home) | SJ Earthquakes (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-1-2 in 7 (2.9 / 2.0 goals per game) | 6-1-1 in 8 (2.2 / 1.1 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 13% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 65% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 66% |
| Top scorer | – | Preston Judd (11) |
MLS (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 59%
Use these MLS (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.02 vs 1.25):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Cincinnati or draw (1X) | 77% |
| Double chance — SJ Earthquakes or draw (X2) | 45% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 84% / 16% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 41% / 59% |
| Cincinnati clean sheet | 29% |
| SJ Earthquakes clean sheet | 13% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Cincinnati is the model's most likely outcome at
50%. Cincinnati are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.3, this shapes as an open game (58% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Cincinnati vs SJ Earthquakes — FAQ
Who will win Cincinnati vs SJ Earthquakes?
Our statistical model makes Cincinnati the most likely result at 50%. Full probabilities: Cincinnati 50%, draw 23%, SJ Earthquakes 27%.
Will both teams score in Cincinnati vs SJ Earthquakes?
The model gives a 66% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Cincinnati vs SJ Earthquakes?
Expected goals are 2.02 for Cincinnati and 1.25 for SJ Earthquakes — about 3.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Cincinnati vs SJ Earthquakes?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (10%). Double chance for Cincinnati or draw is 77%.