Cirbonero vs Izarra Prediction & Preview
Tercera (Spain) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
TERCERA (SPAIN)
Cirbonero vs Izarra
Model pick: Cirbonero (37%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.29 – 1.24
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Cirbonero | Izarra |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.4 | 1.8 / 1.8 |
*Cirbonero shown at home, Izarra shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Cirbonero — last 5
LDDLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 44% of the time; 41% of home games go over 2.5.
Izarra — last 5
WDLDD
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Cirbonero (home) | Izarra (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 44% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 50% |
Tercera (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Tercera (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.29 vs 1.24):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Cirbonero or draw (1X) | 65% |
| Double chance — Izarra or draw (X2) | 62% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| Cirbonero clean sheet | 29% |
| Izarra clean sheet | 28% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Cirbonero is the model's most likely outcome at
37%. Cirbonero are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Cirbonero vs Izarra — FAQ
Who will win Cirbonero vs Izarra?
Our statistical model makes Cirbonero the most likely result at 37%. Full probabilities: Cirbonero 37%, draw 28%, Izarra 35%.
Will both teams score in Cirbonero vs Izarra?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Cirbonero vs Izarra?
Expected goals are 1.29 for Cirbonero and 1.24 for Izarra — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Cirbonero vs Izarra?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Cirbonero or draw is 65%.