Claypole vs Fénix Prediction & Preview
Primera C Metro (Argentina) · Aug 24, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA C METRO (ARGENTINA)
Claypole vs Fénix
Model pick: Fénix (61%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.43 – 1.55
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 40%
Both teams score: 41%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Claypole | Fénix |
|---|
| League position | #13 (25 pts) | #12 (26 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.4 | 0.7 / 1.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 27% | 17% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 0.8 |
*Claypole shown at home, Fénix shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Claypole — last 5
DDLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 25% of home games go over 2.5.
Fénix — last 5
WDDWD
On the road: clean sheet 32% of the time; 32% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Claypole (home) | Fénix (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-4-4 in 11 (1.0 / 1.4 goals per game) | 2-4-6 in 12 (0.7 / 1.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 32% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 32% |
Primera C Metro (Argentina) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 1.82
Home wins: 34%
Draws: 33%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 27%
BTTS: 34%
Use these Primera C Metro (Argentina) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.43 vs 1.55):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (21%) |
| Double chance — Claypole or draw (1X) | 35% |
| Double chance — Fénix or draw (X2) | 90% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 59% / 41% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 14% / 86% |
| Claypole clean sheet | 21% |
| Fénix clean sheet | 65% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Fénix is the model's most likely outcome at
61%. Despite playing away, Fénix edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (60% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Claypole vs Fénix — FAQ
Who will win Claypole vs Fénix?
Our statistical model makes Fénix the most likely result at 61%. Full probabilities: Claypole 12%, draw 27%, Fénix 61%.
Will both teams score in Claypole vs Fénix?
The model gives a 41% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Claypole vs Fénix?
Expected goals are 0.43 for Claypole and 1.55 for Fénix — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Claypole vs Fénix?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (21%). Double chance for Claypole or draw is 35%.