Cleethorpes vs Alfreton Town Prediction & Preview
Non League Premier (England) · Aug 18, 2026 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
NON LEAGUE PREMIER (ENGLAND)
Cleethorpes vs Alfreton Town
Model pick: Cleethorpes (62%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.08 – 0.04
Total goals: 1.1
Over 2.5: 24%
Both teams score: 16%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Cleethorpes | Alfreton Town |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 1.8 |
*Cleethorpes shown at home, Alfreton Town shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Cleethorpes — last 5
DLDWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 50% of the time; 25% of home games go over 2.5.
Alfreton Town — last 5
LLLLW
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 52% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Cleethorpes (home) | Alfreton Town (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 50% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 52% |
Non League Premier (England) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.71
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 20%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Non League Premier (England) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.08 vs 0.04):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (35%) |
| Double chance — Cleethorpes or draw (1X) | 99% |
| Double chance — Alfreton Town or draw (X2) | 35% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 66% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 31% / 69% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 3% / 97% |
| Cleethorpes clean sheet | 96% |
| Alfreton Town clean sheet | 34% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Cleethorpes is the model's most likely outcome at
62%. Cleethorpes are backed at home, where they average 1.0 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (76% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Cleethorpes vs Alfreton Town — FAQ
Who will win Cleethorpes vs Alfreton Town?
Our statistical model makes Cleethorpes the most likely result at 62%. Full probabilities: Cleethorpes 62%, draw 36%, Alfreton Town 2%.
Will both teams score in Cleethorpes vs Alfreton Town?
The model gives a 16% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Cleethorpes vs Alfreton Town?
Expected goals are 1.08 for Cleethorpes and 0.04 for Alfreton Town — about 1.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Cleethorpes vs Alfreton Town?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (35%). Double chance for Cleethorpes or draw is 99%.