Club A. Guemes vs Atlético Rafaela Prediction & Preview
Argentino B (Argentina) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ARGENTINO B (ARGENTINA)
Club A. Guemes vs Atlético Rafaela
Model pick: Atlético Rafaela (46%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.53 – 1.05
Total goals: 1.6
Over 2.5: 33%
Both teams score: 41%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Club A. Guemes | Atlético Rafaela |
|---|
| League position | #18 (20 pts) | #8 (35 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.9 / 1.5 | 0.4 / 1.1 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 8% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 2.2 | 0.6 / 0.6 |
*Club A. Guemes shown at home, Atlético Rafaela shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Club A. Guemes — last 5
LLLLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Atlético Rafaela — last 5
LWDWD
On the road: clean sheet 9% of the time; 55% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Club A. Guemes (home) | Atlético Rafaela (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-2-6 in 12 (0.9 / 1.5 goals per game) | 1-5-6 in 12 (0.4 / 1.1 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 9% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 55% |
Argentino B (Argentina) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.15
Home wins: 52%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 20%
Over 2.5: 36%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Argentino B (Argentina) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.53 vs 1.05):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (22%) |
| Double chance — Club A. Guemes or draw (1X) | 52% |
| Double chance — Atlético Rafaela or draw (X2) | 82% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 66% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 47% / 53% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 8% / 92% |
| Club A. Guemes clean sheet | 35% |
| Atlético Rafaela clean sheet | 59% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Atlético Rafaela is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. Despite playing away, Atlético Rafaela edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (67% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Club A. Guemes vs Atlético Rafaela — FAQ
Who will win Club A. Guemes vs Atlético Rafaela?
Our statistical model makes Atlético Rafaela the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: Club A. Guemes 20%, draw 34%, Atlético Rafaela 46%.
Will both teams score in Club A. Guemes vs Atlético Rafaela?
The model gives a 41% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Club A. Guemes vs Atlético Rafaela?
Expected goals are 0.53 for Club A. Guemes and 1.05 for Atlético Rafaela — about 1.6 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Club A. Guemes vs Atlético Rafaela?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (22%). Double chance for Club A. Guemes or draw is 52%.