Club Guaraní vs Sportivo Ameliano Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Paraguay) · Aug 30, 2026 · kickoff 21:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (PARAGUAY)
Club Guaraní vs Sportivo Ameliano
Model pick: Club Guaraní (46%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.42 – 0.92
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Club Guaraní | Sportivo Ameliano |
|---|
| League position | #3 (178 pts) | #9 (137 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 1.0 |
*Club Guaraní shown at home, Sportivo Ameliano shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Club Guaraní — last 5
WWDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 28% of the time; 57% of home games go over 2.5.
Sportivo Ameliano — last 5
DWLLW
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 47% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Club Guaraní (home) | Sportivo Ameliano (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 28% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 47% |
| Top scorer | – | Elvio Vera (6) |
Primera Division (Paraguay) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.52
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Primera Division (Paraguay) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.42 vs 0.92):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Club Guaraní or draw (1X) | 76% |
| Double chance — Sportivo Ameliano or draw (X2) | 51% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 21% / 79% |
| Club Guaraní clean sheet | 40% |
| Sportivo Ameliano clean sheet | 24% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Club Guaraní is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. Club Guaraní are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Club Guaraní vs Sportivo Ameliano — FAQ
Who will win Club Guaraní vs Sportivo Ameliano?
Our statistical model makes Club Guaraní the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: Club Guaraní 46%, draw 28%, Sportivo Ameliano 26%.
Will both teams score in Club Guaraní vs Sportivo Ameliano?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Club Guaraní vs Sportivo Ameliano?
Expected goals are 1.42 for Club Guaraní and 0.92 for Sportivo Ameliano — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Club Guaraní vs Sportivo Ameliano?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Club Guaraní or draw is 76%.