Colorado Rapids vs Sporting KC Prediction & Preview
MLS (USA) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 01:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MLS (USA)
Colorado Rapids vs Sporting KC
Model pick: Colorado Rapids (58%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.89 – 1.3
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 58%
Both teams score: 59%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Colorado Rapids | Sporting KC |
|---|
| League position | #13 (16 pts) | #15 (11 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.5 / 1.5 | 0.9 / 3.1 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 2.0 |
*Colorado Rapids shown at home, Sporting KC shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Colorado Rapids — last 5
DDWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Sporting KC — last 5
DLWLL
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 56% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Colorado Rapids (home) | Sporting KC (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-0-3 in 6 (2.5 / 1.5 goals per game) | 2-0-6 in 8 (0.9 / 3.1 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 56% |
| Top scorer | – | Nicolas Mercau (13) |
MLS (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 59%
Use these MLS (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.89 vs 1.3):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Colorado Rapids or draw (1X) | 74% |
| Double chance — Sporting KC or draw (X2) | 49% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 83% / 17% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 40% / 60% |
| Colorado Rapids clean sheet | 27% |
| Sporting KC clean sheet | 15% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Colorado Rapids is the model's most likely outcome at
58%. Colorado Rapids are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (58% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Colorado Rapids vs Sporting KC — FAQ
Who will win Colorado Rapids vs Sporting KC?
Our statistical model makes Colorado Rapids the most likely result at 58%. Full probabilities: Colorado Rapids 58%, draw 22%, Sporting KC 21%.
Will both teams score in Colorado Rapids vs Sporting KC?
The model gives a 59% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Colorado Rapids vs Sporting KC?
Expected goals are 1.89 for Colorado Rapids and 1.3 for Sporting KC — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Colorado Rapids vs Sporting KC?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Colorado Rapids or draw is 74%.