Columbus Crew vs Montreal Impact Prediction & Preview
MLS (USA) · Aug 19, 2026 · kickoff 23:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MLS (USA)
Columbus Crew vs Montreal Impact
Model pick: Columbus Crew (59%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.17 – 1.0
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 57%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Columbus Crew | Montreal Impact |
|---|
| League position | #10 (16 pts) | #11 (15 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.3 / 0.9 | 1.5 / 3.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 43% | 12% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.2 | 0.8 / 1.0 |
*Columbus Crew shown at home, Montreal Impact shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Columbus Crew — last 5
WDWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 34% of the time; 59% of home games go over 2.5.
Montreal Impact — last 5
WDLLD
On the road: clean sheet 14% of the time; 61% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Columbus Crew (home) | Montreal Impact (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-2-2 in 7 (1.3 / 0.9 goals per game) | 1-1-6 in 8 (1.5 / 3.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 34% | 14% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 61% |
| Top scorer | – | Prince-Osei Owusu (10) |
MLS (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 59%
Use these MLS (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.17 vs 1.0):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (10%) |
| Double chance — Columbus Crew or draw (1X) | 84% |
| Double chance — Montreal Impact or draw (X2) | 36% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 80% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 82% / 18% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 39% / 61% |
| Columbus Crew clean sheet | 37% |
| Montreal Impact clean sheet | 11% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Columbus Crew is the model's most likely outcome at
59%. Columbus Crew are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (57% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
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❓ Columbus Crew vs Montreal Impact — FAQ
Who will win Columbus Crew vs Montreal Impact?
Our statistical model makes Columbus Crew the most likely result at 59%. Full probabilities: Columbus Crew 59%, draw 22%, Montreal Impact 19%.
Will both teams score in Columbus Crew vs Montreal Impact?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Columbus Crew vs Montreal Impact?
Expected goals are 2.17 for Columbus Crew and 1.0 for Montreal Impact — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Columbus Crew vs Montreal Impact?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (10%). Double chance for Columbus Crew or draw is 84%.