Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Lima Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Peru) · Jul 26, 2026 · kickoff 20:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (PERU)
Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Lima
Model pick: Alianza Lima (51%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.8 – 1.51
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Comerciantes Unidos | Alianza Lima |
|---|
| League position | #9 (22 pts) | #1 (43 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.2 | 1.8 / 1.4 |
*Comerciantes Unidos shown at home, Alianza Lima shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Comerciantes Unidos — last 5
WLWDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 52% of home games go over 2.5.
Alianza Lima — last 5
WDDLW
On the road: clean sheet 30% of the time; 43% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Comerciantes Unidos (home) | Alianza Lima (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 43% |
| Top scorer | Matias Sen (6) | – |
Primera Division (Peru) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.65
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Primera Division (Peru) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.8 vs 1.51):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (15%) |
| Double chance — Comerciantes Unidos or draw (1X) | 46% |
| Double chance — Alianza Lima or draw (X2) | 80% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 67% / 33% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| Comerciantes Unidos clean sheet | 22% |
| Alianza Lima clean sheet | 45% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Alianza Lima is the model's most likely outcome at
51%. Despite playing away, Alianza Lima edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Lima — FAQ
Who will win Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Lima?
Our statistical model makes Alianza Lima the most likely result at 51%. Full probabilities: Comerciantes Unidos 22%, draw 27%, Alianza Lima 51%.
Will both teams score in Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Lima?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Lima?
Expected goals are 0.8 for Comerciantes Unidos and 1.51 for Alianza Lima — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Lima?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (15%). Double chance for Comerciantes Unidos or draw is 46%.