Corinthians vs Chapecoense Prediction & Preview
BrazilA · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 22:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
BRAZILA
Corinthians vs Chapecoense
Model pick: Corinthians (65%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.87 – 0.73
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 45%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Corinthians | Chapecoense |
|---|
| League position | #10 (32 pts) | #20 (14 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 0.8 | 0.7 / 1.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 38% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.0 | 1.2 / 2.0 |
*Corinthians shown at home, Chapecoense shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Corinthians — last 5
DLWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 41% of the time; 40% of home games go over 2.5.
Chapecoense — last 5
LLDWL
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 40% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Corinthians (home) | Chapecoense (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-3-5 in 13 (1.0 / 0.8 goals per game) | 0-3-9 in 12 (0.7 / 1.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 41% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Top scorer | Henrique Gustavo (3) | – |
BrazilA — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.39
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 43%
BTTS: 48%
Use these BrazilA averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.87 vs 0.73):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Corinthians or draw (1X) | 86% |
| Double chance — Chapecoense or draw (X2) | 36% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| Corinthians clean sheet | 48% |
| Chapecoense clean sheet | 15% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Corinthians is the model's most likely outcome at
65%. Corinthians are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Corinthians vs Chapecoense — FAQ
Who will win Corinthians vs Chapecoense?
Our statistical model makes Corinthians the most likely result at 65%. Full probabilities: Corinthians 65%, draw 22%, Chapecoense 13%.
Will both teams score in Corinthians vs Chapecoense?
The model gives a 45% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Corinthians vs Chapecoense?
Expected goals are 1.87 for Corinthians and 0.73 for Chapecoense — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Corinthians vs Chapecoense?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Corinthians or draw is 86%.