Coritiba vs Chapecoense Prediction & Preview
BrazilA · Aug 08, 2026 · kickoff 23:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
BRAZILA
Coritiba vs Chapecoense
Model pick: Coritiba (54%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.49 – 0.9
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Coritiba | Chapecoense |
|---|
| League position | #11 (27 pts) | #20 (10 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.1 / 1.2 | 0.6 / 1.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 30% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.0 | 0.8 / 1.8 |
*Coritiba shown at home, Chapecoense shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Coritiba — last 5
DWLDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 45% of the time; 32% of home games go over 2.5.
Chapecoense — last 5
WLLDD
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 40% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Coritiba (home) | Chapecoense (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-3-4 in 10 (1.1 / 1.2 goals per game) | 0-3-7 in 10 (0.6 / 1.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 45% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 40% |
BrazilA — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.38
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 43%
BTTS: 48%
Use these BrazilA averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.49 vs 0.9):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Coritiba or draw (1X) | 77% |
| Double chance — Chapecoense or draw (X2) | 49% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 69% / 31% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 22% / 78% |
| Coritiba clean sheet | 41% |
| Chapecoense clean sheet | 23% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Coritiba is the model's most likely outcome at
54%. Coritiba are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Coritiba vs Chapecoense — FAQ
Who will win Coritiba vs Chapecoense?
Our statistical model makes Coritiba the most likely result at 54%. Full probabilities: Coritiba 54%, draw 26%, Chapecoense 20%.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Chapecoense?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Coritiba vs Chapecoense?
Expected goals are 1.49 for Coritiba and 0.9 for Chapecoense — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Coritiba vs Chapecoense?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Coritiba or draw is 77%.