Coritiba vs Mirassol Prediction & Preview
Serie A (Brazil) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 21:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE A (BRAZIL)
Coritiba vs Mirassol
Model pick: Mirassol (46%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.1 – 1.55
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Coritiba | Mirassol |
|---|
| League position | #9 (34 pts) | #18 (24 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 1.2 | 0.9 / 1.6 |
| Win rate this season* | 42% | 9% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 1.8 |
*Coritiba shown at home, Mirassol shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Coritiba — last 5
DLWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 44% of the time; 33% of home games go over 2.5.
Mirassol — last 5
DLLDD
On the road: clean sheet 32% of the time; 32% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Coritiba (home) | Mirassol (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-3-4 in 12 (1.2 / 1.2 goals per game) | 1-3-7 in 11 (0.9 / 1.6 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 44% | 32% |
| Both teams scored | 39% | 42% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 32% |
Serie A (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.39
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 43%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Serie A (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.1 vs 1.55):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Coritiba or draw (1X) | 52% |
| Double chance — Mirassol or draw (X2) | 73% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 74% / 26% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| Coritiba clean sheet | 21% |
| Mirassol clean sheet | 33% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Mirassol is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. Despite playing away, Mirassol edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Coritiba vs Mirassol — FAQ
Who will win Coritiba vs Mirassol?
Our statistical model makes Mirassol the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: Coritiba 28%, draw 26%, Mirassol 46%.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Mirassol?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Coritiba vs Mirassol?
Expected goals are 1.1 for Coritiba and 1.55 for Mirassol — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Coritiba vs Mirassol?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Coritiba or draw is 52%.