Corpus Christi FC vs Forward Madison Prediction & Preview
USL League One (USA) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 00:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
USL LEAGUE ONE (USA)
Corpus Christi FC vs Forward Madison
Model pick: Forward Madison (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.82 – 1.0
Total goals: 1.8
Over 2.5: 38%
Both teams score: 45%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Corpus Christi FC | Forward Madison |
|---|
| League position | #10 (30 pts) | #3 (43 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 1.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 45% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 1.2 |
*Corpus Christi FC shown at home, Forward Madison shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Corpus Christi FC — last 5
DWWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 20% of the time; 60% of home games go over 2.5.
Forward Madison — last 5
LDWDW
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 75% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Corpus Christi FC (home) | Forward Madison (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-4-2 in 11 (1.5 / 1.2 goals per game) | 6-1-5 in 12 (1.2 / 1.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 20% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 75% |
USL League One (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.03
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 63%
BTTS: 62%
Use these USL League One (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.82 vs 1.0):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (16%) |
| Double chance — Corpus Christi FC or draw (1X) | 61% |
| Double chance — Forward Madison or draw (X2) | 71% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 68% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 54% / 46% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 11% / 89% |
| Corpus Christi FC clean sheet | 37% |
| Forward Madison clean sheet | 44% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Forward Madison is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Despite playing away, Forward Madison edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (62% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Corpus Christi FC vs Forward Madison — FAQ
Who will win Corpus Christi FC vs Forward Madison?
Our statistical model makes Forward Madison the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Corpus Christi FC 30%, draw 33%, Forward Madison 38%.
Will both teams score in Corpus Christi FC vs Forward Madison?
The model gives a 45% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Corpus Christi FC vs Forward Madison?
Expected goals are 0.82 for Corpus Christi FC and 1.0 for Forward Madison — about 1.8 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Corpus Christi FC vs Forward Madison?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (16%). Double chance for Corpus Christi FC or draw is 61%.