Cracovia Kraków vs Górnik Zabrze Prediction & Preview
Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EKSTRAKLASA (POLAND)
Cracovia Kraków vs Górnik Zabrze
Model pick: Cracovia Kraków (40%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.31 – 1.14
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Cracovia Kraków | Górnik Zabrze |
|---|
| League position | #10 (8 pts) | #5 (9 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.7 / 1.7 | 3.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 67% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.4 | 1.6 / 2.4 |
*Cracovia Kraków shown at home, Górnik Zabrze shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Cracovia Kraków — last 5
LDWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 46% of home games go over 2.5.
Górnik Zabrze — last 5
DWLLL
On the road: clean sheet 23% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Cracovia Kraków (home) | Górnik Zabrze (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-0-1 in 3 (1.7 / 1.7 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (3.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 50% |
| Top scorer | Ajdin Hasic (7) | Maksym Khlan (4) |
Ekstraklasa (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.66
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 53%
Use these Ekstraklasa (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.31 vs 1.14):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Cracovia Kraków or draw (1X) | 68% |
| Double chance — Górnik Zabrze or draw (X2) | 60% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 70% / 30% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 23% / 77% |
| Cracovia Kraków clean sheet | 32% |
| Górnik Zabrze clean sheet | 27% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Cracovia Kraków is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Cracovia Kraków are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Cracovia Kraków vs Górnik Zabrze — FAQ
Who will win Cracovia Kraków vs Górnik Zabrze?
Our statistical model makes Cracovia Kraków the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Cracovia Kraków 40%, draw 28%, Górnik Zabrze 32%.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Kraków vs Górnik Zabrze?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Cracovia Kraków vs Górnik Zabrze?
Expected goals are 1.31 for Cracovia Kraków and 1.14 for Górnik Zabrze — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Cracovia Kraków vs Górnik Zabrze?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Cracovia Kraków or draw is 68%.