Cracovia Kraków vs Pogoń Szczecin Prediction & Preview
Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Aug 03, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EKSTRAKLASA (POLAND)
Cracovia Kraków vs Pogoń Szczecin
Model pick: Cracovia Kraków (41%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.35 – 1.28
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Cracovia Kraków | Pogoń Szczecin |
|---|
| League position | #11 (1 pts) | #17 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 1.8 |
*Cracovia Kraków shown at home, Pogoń Szczecin shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Cracovia Kraków — last 5
LWWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 46% of home games go over 2.5.
Pogoń Szczecin — last 5
LWLLL
On the road: clean sheet 28% of the time; 46% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Cracovia Kraków (home) | Pogoń Szczecin (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 28% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 46% |
| Top scorer | Ajdin Hasic (7) | Paul Mukairu (6) |
Ekstraklasa (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.66
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 53%
Use these Ekstraklasa (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.35 vs 1.28):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Cracovia Kraków or draw (1X) | 65% |
| Double chance — Pogoń Szczecin or draw (X2) | 61% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 74% / 26% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| Cracovia Kraków clean sheet | 28% |
| Pogoń Szczecin clean sheet | 26% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Cracovia Kraków is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Cracovia Kraków are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Cracovia Kraków vs Pogoń Szczecin — FAQ
Who will win Cracovia Kraków vs Pogoń Szczecin?
Our statistical model makes Cracovia Kraków the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: Cracovia Kraków 41%, draw 30%, Pogoń Szczecin 30%.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Kraków vs Pogoń Szczecin?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Cracovia Kraków vs Pogoń Szczecin?
Expected goals are 1.35 for Cracovia Kraków and 1.28 for Pogoń Szczecin — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Cracovia Kraków vs Pogoń Szczecin?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Cracovia Kraków or draw is 65%.