CRB vs América Mineiro Prediction & Preview
Serie B (Brazil) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 00:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE B (BRAZIL)
CRB vs América Mineiro
Model pick: CRB (47%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.44 – 0.91
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| CRB | América Mineiro |
|---|
| League position | #8 (36 pts) | #19 (14 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.6 / 1.3 | 0.6 / 1.9 |
| Win rate this season* | 36% | 8% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 2.2 |
*CRB shown at home, América Mineiro shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
CRB — last 5
WWDWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 36% of the time; 41% of home games go over 2.5.
América Mineiro — last 5
WLLLL
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 38% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | CRB (home) | América Mineiro (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-3-4 in 11 (1.6 / 1.3 goals per game) | 1-2-10 in 13 (0.6 / 1.9 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 36% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 38% |
| Top scorer | Mikael (11) | – |
Serie B (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.17
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 38%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Serie B (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.44 vs 0.91):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — CRB or draw (1X) | 76% |
| Double chance — América Mineiro or draw (X2) | 51% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 21% / 79% |
| CRB clean sheet | 40% |
| América Mineiro clean sheet | 24% |
🎯 Our Verdict
CRB is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. CRB are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ CRB vs América Mineiro — FAQ
Who will win CRB vs América Mineiro?
Our statistical model makes CRB the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: CRB 47%, draw 28%, América Mineiro 25%.
Will both teams score in CRB vs América Mineiro?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in CRB vs América Mineiro?
Expected goals are 1.44 for CRB and 0.91 for América Mineiro — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in CRB vs América Mineiro?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for CRB or draw is 76%.