CRB vs Novorizontino Prediction & Preview
Serie B (Brazil) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 21:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE B (BRAZIL)
CRB vs Novorizontino
Model pick: CRB (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.1 – 0.97
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| CRB | Novorizontino |
|---|
| League position | #11 (29 pts) | #6 (33 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.8 / 1.4 | 1.6 / 0.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 40% | 36% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.6 | 1.0 / 1.2 |
*CRB shown at home, Novorizontino shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
CRB — last 5
LDWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 36% of the time; 41% of home games go over 2.5.
Novorizontino — last 5
LLLWL
On the road: clean sheet 32% of the time; 33% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | CRB (home) | Novorizontino (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-2-4 in 10 (1.8 / 1.4 goals per game) | 4-4-3 in 11 (1.6 / 0.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 36% | 32% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 37% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 33% |
| Top scorer | Mikael (10) | Robson (7) |
Serie B (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.17
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 38%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Serie B (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.1 vs 0.97):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — CRB or draw (1X) | 68% |
| Double chance — Novorizontino or draw (X2) | 62% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 61% / 39% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 16% / 84% |
| CRB clean sheet | 38% |
| Novorizontino clean sheet | 33% |
🎯 Our Verdict
CRB is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. CRB are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ CRB vs Novorizontino — FAQ
Who will win CRB vs Novorizontino?
Our statistical model makes CRB the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: CRB 38%, draw 31%, Novorizontino 32%.
Will both teams score in CRB vs Novorizontino?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in CRB vs Novorizontino?
Expected goals are 1.1 for CRB and 0.97 for Novorizontino — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in CRB vs Novorizontino?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for CRB or draw is 68%.