CRB vs Vila Nova Prediction & Preview
Serie B (Brazil) · Jul 27, 2026 · kickoff 22:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE B (BRAZIL)
CRB vs Vila Nova
Model pick: CRB (46%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.39 – 0.89
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| CRB | Vila Nova |
|---|
| League position | #10 (26 pts) | #3 (34 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.8 / 1.6 | 0.9 / 1.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 30% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.6 | 1.2 / 1.4 |
*CRB shown at home, Vila Nova shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
CRB — last 5
WLDWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 36% of the time; 41% of home games go over 2.5.
Vila Nova — last 5
DWLLW
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 38% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | CRB (home) | Vila Nova (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-2-4 in 9 (1.8 / 1.6 goals per game) | 3-2-5 in 10 (0.9 / 1.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 36% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 38% |
| Top scorer | Mikael (9) | Janderson (4) |
Serie B (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.17
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 38%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Serie B (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.39 vs 0.89):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — CRB or draw (1X) | 76% |
| Double chance — Vila Nova or draw (X2) | 51% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| CRB clean sheet | 41% |
| Vila Nova clean sheet | 25% |
🎯 Our Verdict
CRB is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. CRB are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ CRB vs Vila Nova — FAQ
Who will win CRB vs Vila Nova?
Our statistical model makes CRB the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: CRB 46%, draw 28%, Vila Nova 25%.
Will both teams score in CRB vs Vila Nova?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in CRB vs Vila Nova?
Expected goals are 1.39 for CRB and 0.89 for Vila Nova — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in CRB vs Vila Nova?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for CRB or draw is 76%.