Cremonese vs Calcio Padova Prediction & Preview
Serie B (Italy) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE B (ITALY)
Cremonese vs Calcio Padova
Model pick: Cremonese (55%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.64 – 0.76
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Cremonese | Calcio Padova |
|---|
| League position | #18 (34 pts) | #6 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | 1.0 / 0.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 0.8 | 1.4 / 1.0 |
*Cremonese shown at home, Calcio Padova shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Cremonese — last 5
DWWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 34% of the time; 44% of home games go over 2.5.
Calcio Padova — last 5
WDLWD
On the road: clean sheet 35% of the time; 39% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Cremonese (home) | Calcio Padova (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | 1-0-0 in 1 (1.0 / 0.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 34% | 35% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 39% |
Serie B (Italy) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.45
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 32%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 53%
Use these Serie B (Italy) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.64 vs 0.76):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — Cremonese or draw (1X) | 83% |
| Double chance — Calcio Padova or draw (X2) | 42% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 69% / 31% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 22% / 78% |
| Cremonese clean sheet | 47% |
| Calcio Padova clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Cremonese is the model's most likely outcome at
55%. Cremonese are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Cremonese vs Calcio Padova — FAQ
Who will win Cremonese vs Calcio Padova?
Our statistical model makes Cremonese the most likely result at 55%. Full probabilities: Cremonese 55%, draw 26%, Calcio Padova 19%.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Calcio Padova?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Cremonese vs Calcio Padova?
Expected goals are 1.64 for Cremonese and 0.76 for Calcio Padova — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Cremonese vs Calcio Padova?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (15%). Double chance for Cremonese or draw is 83%.