Criciúma vs Cuiabá Prediction & Preview
Serie B (Brazil) · Sep 04, 2026 · kickoff 22:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE B (BRAZIL)
Criciúma vs Cuiabá
Model pick: Criciúma (47%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.3 – 0.74
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 41%
Both teams score: 46%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Criciúma | Cuiabá |
|---|
| League position | #2 (44 pts) | #13 (33 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.1 / 0.5 | 0.9 / 0.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 58% | 27% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.4 / 1.0 | 1.4 / 0.8 |
*Criciúma shown at home, Cuiabá shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Criciúma — last 5
DLWDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 39% of the time; 39% of home games go over 2.5.
Cuiabá — last 5
DDWWD
On the road: clean sheet 29% of the time; 33% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Criciúma (home) | Cuiabá (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 7-4-1 in 12 (1.1 / 0.5 goals per game) | 3-5-3 in 11 (0.9 / 0.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 39% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 41% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 33% |
| Top scorer | Romulo Otero (3) | – |
Serie B (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.17
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 38%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Serie B (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.3 vs 0.74):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (17%) |
| Double chance — Criciúma or draw (1X) | 79% |
| Double chance — Cuiabá or draw (X2) | 50% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 60% / 40% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 15% / 85% |
| Criciúma clean sheet | 48% |
| Cuiabá clean sheet | 27% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Criciúma is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. Criciúma are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (59% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Criciúma vs Cuiabá — FAQ
Who will win Criciúma vs Cuiabá?
Our statistical model makes Criciúma the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: Criciúma 47%, draw 30%, Cuiabá 23%.
Will both teams score in Criciúma vs Cuiabá?
The model gives a 46% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Criciúma vs Cuiabá?
Expected goals are 1.3 for Criciúma and 0.74 for Cuiabá — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Criciúma vs Cuiabá?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (17%). Double chance for Criciúma or draw is 79%.